Wow, Apple speculation is running rampant!  Yesterday, Apple made two pretty big announcements related to Macworld.  The first was that this January would the last time that Apple exhibits at Macworld Expo, and that this year’s keynote would not be given by Steve Jobs, but rather, by Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing.

This news was deemed significant in two ways.  First, in previous years, Macworld was seemingly Apple’s showcase to announce new products and generate hype.   And second, the hype generator since Apple’s return to prominence has always been Steve Jobs.  And so the rampant speculation began.  What did it all mean??

First, starting off with Macworld…  I can think of several reasons for Apple to abandon Macworld.

1.  CES (Consumer Electronics Show) is always held in January at the same time as Macworld.  Apple usually forgo’s CES because of Macworld, but I would imagine that they would get the same press coverage at CES if they had something to say.  Possibly more coverage overall.  Not going to Macworld would free them up to do CES. (Unlikely)

2.  By announcing that its pulling out of Macworld, Apple deflects attention away from the real announcement, which is that Steve Jobs is almost dead.  It’s pretty dramatic to think they would make such a major shift as to quit Macworld just to deflect attention from the topic of Steve Jobs’ health, which will be at the front of every story anyway.  (Possible but not by itself)

3.  Apple likes to be in control of everything.  Remember that Apple doesn’t run Macworld, IDG does.  Apple used to do an east coast Macworld too, that was held in the summer as opposed to the San Francisco one in January.  They pulled out of that one because lack of big announcements invariably lead to disappointment by an over-hyped media.  At the some time, keynotes at the Apple Worldwide Developer’s Conference, which is less than a half year apart from MacWorld, became a platform for announcements, and Apple also started holding their own massive press conferences to announce products.  Why announce something on Macworld’s schedule, when you can announce it on your schedule, when you are ready to? (Likely)

IDG was quick to say that the show would go on without Apple in 2010, but I have to think that’s just PR spin that is likely to change once Macworld 2009 has come and gone.  Really, what’s Macworld without Apple?  But who knows.  Maybe with Apple out of the huge spotlight, 3rd parties will actually get more press from Macworld, instead of Apple hogging the spotlight.  I think it’s more likely that vendors will cancel 2010, much like what happened to E3 when the big 3 game makers scaled back, and the show will have to either dramatically change or die.

Speaking of dying, how about that Steve Jobs….  Good grief, you’d think the man died already!!  I realize that Jobs was critical to the turnaround of Apple when he came back in 1997.  And Steve’s “One More Thing…” announcements sometimes came from Macworld.  But is it really “as Steve Jobs goes, so goes Apple?”  I find that hard to believe.

Investors don’t though, apparently.  Based on rumors that his health is the reason for Apple’s withdrawl from Macworld and for Jobs not doing the keynote, Apple stock dropped 7% (as of this article).   And you wonder why the stock market is in the state it’s in these days!?!  Do we know any more or less about the health of Steve Jobs than we did before?  No.  But apparently because he’s not doing a keynote, he’s near death.

Apple started making this transition earlier this year, when Scott Forstall and Phil Schiller shared the stage with Jobs at the WWDC.  I would have expected at least that, if not this step further, at this year’s Macworld.  Even if Steve’s health is seriously declining like people love to speculate about, isn’t an upfront and planned transition of power preferrable to a sudden one?  But hey, everyone loves a good rumor…

It’s a shame that Apple cancelled Christmas as well…  I was just beginning to like the idea.